Approaching the halfway stage of the Super League season there’s still no real insight into which teams will make the playoffs and who will miss out with the competition being incredibly tight. However, one indicator as to who will or won’t make the top six is the bookies.
Sport and betting are synonymous with each other in modern society, whether it be a weekend acca or a season-long punt on an outside shot that you fancy. If you’d backed Leigh Leopards for the Challenge Cup last season then you’d have definitely upset the odds.
However, generally, the bookies are never wrong. To coin a casino term, ‘the house always wins’. As such it can be interesting to use the bookmakers markets to gain an insight into the expected outcome of events. That could be single games or it could be across all seasons.
Super League sponsor Betfred have put together a market for which sides will come in the top six of Super League, a question that looks increasingly tougher to answer as the weeks go on.
As it stands, five points separate fourth from ninth with those two teams, Hull KR and Leigh Leopards, facing off against each other this weekend. The odds will wildly swing if Adrian Lam’s in-form Leopards manage to upset the home favourites, but for now, here are the bookies’ picks for which sides will make the top six.
Which Super League sides have no chance of making the top six?
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With just two points apiece all season and way off the pace, London Broncos and Hull FC are priced at 500/1 and 150/1 respectively. That’s a major difference given that London got the better of FC just earlier this month, however, neither are a side that look capable of closing the 12-point gap to sixth.
Another team that’s a huge price, although far closer to the top six, is Castleford Tigers. With seven points on the board, Craig Lingard’s side are just a good run of form away from making a push but that’s not stopped the bookies from pricing them a whopping 100/1.
Perhaps if there’s any value in the market then an outside shot on Lingard’s men could be it but then again with games against Wigan, Hull KR and St Helens in their next three, a run of form anytime soon looks a tough ask.
Who are the fringe top six sides?
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With the bottom three of Super League accounted for and given no chance by the bookies, it’s into the nitty-gritty of the teams on the cusp of the top six and playoff rugby league.
Currently, the league table has Salford Red Devils in pole position in sixth with 14 points, two ahead of Leeds, four ahead of Huddersfield and five ahead of Leigh Leopards. Despite that, Salford are actually the joint-longest price of those four teams.
The Red Devils are priced up at 13/8 along with Huddersfield as outsides to make the top six with their negative points difference undoubtedly hindering them. Another team with a negative points difference but a favourite amongst this middle group of four is Leeds Rhinos.
The Rhinos are odds on and priced at 8/13 to make the top six despite growing unrest at the club with calls for Rohan Smith to be sacked and the latest announcement that a new Sporting Director will be hired.
Leigh Leopards have started to march on with their form of late and that’s seen them priced 11/8, shorter than both Huddersfield and Salford despite being five points outside the top six.
QUIZ: Name the League Leaders’ Shield winners from every Super League season
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The remaining five in the market can almost be split into two sections as well with Hull KR the longest price of them, but still an incredibly short 1/7. The Robins are kicking on under Willie Peters and will be looking to establish themselves as playoff constants. Catalans Dragons have become a playoff constant of late and they’re 1/14 despite sitting below KR on points difference.
The top three in the market are also the top three in Super League but there’s a vast difference in odds with third-placed Warrington priced at 1/25 compared to both Saints and Wigan at 1/200 and 1/500.
It seems the bookies are still doubting Sam Burgess and his side with the collapse of Wire in 2023 likely still in the minds of those in charge of pricing.
What will the Super League top six look like at the end of the season?
Odds taken from Oddschecker on Betfred’s ‘Make the Super League top six’ market. Prices correct at time of publishing.
1 – Wigan Warriors (1/500)
2 – St Helens (1/200)
3 – Warrington Wolves (1/25)
4 – Catalans Dragons (1/14)
5 – Hull KR (1/7)
6 – Leeds Rhinos (8/13)
