Hull FC head into their second season under John Cartwright and you can make strong arguments that the Black and Whites could be play-off locks, or have a huge drop off and continue their long run of not cracking the top six.
Super League does throw up shocks from time to time with Wakefield Trinity being an example of that in 2025. Very few expected them to be as strong as they were and on the other hand, not many could see Warrington Wolves being as poor as they were.
However, the competition largely went to form and expectations with the 2024 Grand Finalists of Wigan Warriors and Hull KR leading the way, a chasing pack of Leigh, Leeds and Saints emerging, whilst a bottom three of Huddersfield, Castleford and the financially-troubled Salford also emerged.
Looking ahead to 2026 and many will expect that top five to have similar chances whilst the remaining teams from the bottom two, Huddersfield and Castleford, have typically been grouped with the three promoted teams.
As such, a four-team middle group of Wakefield Trinity, Hull FC, Warrington Wolves and Catalans Dragons has emerged and of those four, Hull FC could be the most volatile.
By that, this writer could see them finishing as high as fourth and being a true threat in the play-offs, or as low as eleventh and having their season end in tatters.
Why Hull FC could become a genuine contender in 2026
For some, such scenarios are extreme and they may well be but there is enough data from 2026 to support both arguments.
Second season under Cartwright
A key argument in favour of them progressing and becoming a solid top six team would be just how close they came in 2025 in their first season under John Cartwright. Hull FC were just three points shy of sixth and that’s despite losing four of their final five games.
We’ll get back to that poor end to the season when assessing reasons why they may struggle in 2026, however, the fact they took such a huge leap from their dismal 2024 emphasises how much progress can be made in a short period of time.
Of course now there’s less scope to improve but a second pre-season under John Cartwright will be invaluable. You only have to look at how big the jump was that Leeds Rhinos took in 2025 after a first pre-season under Brad Arthur to realise that such huge gains are possible.
Easy points left on the board
If a Super League side wins every game in the regular season then they would finish on 54. For Hull FC, they finished on 27 last year – exactly half.
One big area of improvement would be picking up points against teams below them, something they generally did well, however, two losses to Huddersfield Giants and one to Castleford Tigers were incredibly costly.
The Black and Whites were heavy odds on favourites in each of those games and should have won given their quality and form. If they can keep that focus in 2026, then they could unlock plenty more points.
Room for young stars to grow
For all the rhetoric before the 2025 season that Hull FC had signed aging players in regards John Asiata, Zak Hardaker and others, they also have some of the best young players in Super League.
Lewis Martin played every minute in 2025 and finished as Super League’s top try-scorer. Fellow backs Harvey Barron and Davy Litten went from strength to strength whilst Will Pryce showed flickers of the superstar quality that led him to sign in the NRL.
If those players can keep improving, Pryce in particular, then this team could do something truly special in 2026. Making the play-offs is the target but once you’re in that six, anything can happen and Hull FC have the blend of fearless youth and experienced game managers to beat anybody.
Workin’ 🥵📈
⚫️⚪️ #COYH | https://t.co/kuOXzJmBxf pic.twitter.com/A8G9pvT0wm
— Hull FC (@hullfcofficial) December 14, 2025
Why the Black and Whites could fall back down to earth in 2026
Many of the arguments as to why Hull FC could kick on and become a top four side can also be twisted as a reason why they may have a significant fall-off as well.
Can everyone stay fit?
The most obvious of those arguments is the club’s injury history. It’s all well and good forecasting huge leaps from Will Pryce with the likes of John Asiata acting as the guiding hand to lead them through big games, however, both men have to stay on the pitch.
Add into the mix the fact that signings James Bell and Joe Batchelor haven’t had the best times with injuries of late, whilst fellow forward Jed Cartwright played just 11 times and Ligi Sao has been out since February with injury.
As mentioned above, they dropped four of their last five games as injuries and suspensions came to bite them with fatigue leading to that poor end-of-season form. Keeping as many players on the field as possible is every team’s goal every year but it’s hugely important for Hull FC.
How will Jake Arthur fit in?
The Black and Whites have signed Jake Arthur to play in the halves alongside Aidan Sezer but there are questions over how he will fit in, as there are with most young NRL talents who come over.
Hull FC have had a 50/50 strike rate with NRL playmakers in recent years with Jake Clifford impressing but Tex Hoy struggling. Aidan Sezer shone last year whilst the same can’t be said for Josh Reynolds.
How Arthur fares could be a huge factor on if FC’s season is more boom than bust and vice versa.
Opposition strengthening
There could be an argument made that 2025 was Hull FC’s best chance at making the top six given just how poor both Warrington Wolves and Catalans Dragons were, with both sides expected to take big strides in 2026.
Catalans have recruited very impressively whilst Wire have also added talent, will have a number of key men back from injury, and have also added Steve McNamara into the coaching mix.
Castleford Tigers could be another big improver, possibly even having a trajectory similar to what Hull FC had themselves in 2025 based on recruitment and an overseas coach joining the mix.
With so many teams expected to improve, it only strengthens the suggestion that Hull FC might be left in a race among four other clubs for just one play-off spot and should they finish bottom of that group, then finishing tenth or eleventh isn’t all that unrealistic.
Verdict
With everything above accounted for, it makes Hull FC one of the teams who are hardest to predict in 2026. There are so many factors that are unknown such as injury but for this writer, the reasons for improvement outweigh the factors that could bring about downfall.
One thing worth noting that goes against Hull FC is that their Magic Weekend game, the sole loop fixture left in the calendar, is against Hull KR but across the 27-game season, the Black and Whites can kick on and secure a top six finish.
A healthy and happy Will Pryce has the ability to become one of the most game-breaking full-backs in Super League. The three young outside backs and last year’s standout Zak Hardaker complete a formidable backline with Aidan Sezer and Jake Arthur running the show in the halves.
That sees Cade Cust become one of the competition’s best fourteens behind Amir Bourouh with John Asiata, if healthy, being a standout 13. Pack additions Sam Lisone and Harvie Hill offer more reasons to get excited and help complete what could be a genuine top four team.
Alternatively, rivals improve, injuries strike and progression stalls, making Hull FC a team with a huge range of finishing positions in 2026.
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