Leeds Rhinos’ shock defeat at home to Catalans Dragons has blown the Super League play-offs wide open and here are all the permutations.
Brad Arthur’s side looked near certain to finish at least third in Super League with a slim chance that they could even finish second, however, that all was on the assumption that they would beat Catalans Dragons last night.
On a five-game winning streak and playing at home, where they had only lost three times all year, against a Catalans side with nothing to play for, it was understandable why Leeds Rhinos were priced as short as 1/100 with some bookmakers.
Rugby league once again proved it doesn’t adhere to the script though as Catalans put in an incredible performance to grind out a win, leaving Leeds in real jeopardy of not only losing third, but potentially falling out of the top four as well.
A top four spot comes with a home play-off game, something that Leeds haven’t had since 2017, and here’s what last night’s loss means for the Rhinos and all the other play-off sides.
Super League play-off permutations
Hull KR
For the Robins, it’s simple. Win on Saturday against Wakefield Trinity and they will be crowned League Leaders Shield for the first time in their history. The only way Hull KR do not finish first is if they lose both their finals games and Wigan win both of theirs, but even then a 113-point differential would have to be overturned.
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Wigan Warriors
Leeds’ defeat has taken plenty of pressure off Wigan who may well have been competing for second place in the side’s meeting next week. Wigan know that a win against either Castleford (tonight) or Leeds in Round 27 will secure second. They also can still finish first, as described above, but that’s almost as unlikely as Wigan losing second.
To lose second-place then Wigan would have to lose to both Castleford and Leeds and sacrifice a 73-point differential, meaning it looks very likely Matt Peet’s side will be hosting a play-off semi-final.
Leeds Rhinos, Leigh Leopards and St Helens
Brad Arthur’s side are in real danger of losing third place and they will be intently watching tonight’s game between Leigh Leopards and St Helens, although they might not know who to support.
A win for Leigh sees the Leopards leapfrog Leeds into third, meaning they would only have to match the Rhinos result in Round 27 to keep that spot. Leigh will host lowly Huddersfield in that game, whereas Leeds travel to Wigan.
A win for St Helens would mean no change in the ladder this week but it would leave Leeds susceptible to dropping out of the top four next week. Saints would move onto 34 points, two points behind the Rhinos and with a far better points difference.
Therefore if both Leigh (home to Huddersfield) and Saints (home to Castleford) won in Round 27, then defeat for Leeds (away to Wigan) would see the Rhinos drop into fifth. In that scenario, Leigh would finish third and St Helens fourth, meaning the Rhinos would travel to St Helens in the play-offs.
Wakefield Trinity and Hull FC
Thursday night’s result has had no impact on the race for sixth but it could impact who sixth plays in the play-offs. As for the actual battle for that final play-off spot, Hull FC simply need to better Wakefield’s results.
Trinity, who are one point in front of Hull FC, host Hull KR on Saturday knowing a defeat could be fatal for their play-off hopes. At the same time, John Cartwright’s side host Warrington Wolves.
Simply put, Hull FC need to win against Warrington and then Catalans, whilst hoping that Wakefield lose one of their games – either against Hull KR or Salford Red Devils.
After all that, who is ready for some Friday night and Saturday evening Super League?
