Where it went wrong for Paul Wellens at St Helens with three key factors leading to decision

After three seasons at the helm, Paul Wellens time as coach of St Helens is over.

From winning the World Club Challenge in his first game in charge to losing at Hull KR in the semi-final stage last week, it has been a gradually downward trajectory for the 45-year-old.

So, where has it all gone wrong? What has made a club legend go from hero to zero, and more importantly, does the blame fully lie on him?

Well, there are a number of answers to both of those questions, so let’s start back at 2023, where Wellens had just won a prestigious trophy at the first time of asking. The squad majorly made up of players brought in by Kristian Woolf, who helped extend Justin Holbrook’s success by making them four-peat champions before his departure.

Fast forward to the end of 2023, and Saints had finished third, and earned a home play-off against Warrington Wolves, which they won. However, they would come unstuck against Catalans in the semi-finals, as they fell to a 12-6 defeat. In the cup, they were defeated by Leigh Leopards in the final four, as they went on to lift the trophy. At the end of that season, the retirements of club legend James Roby and Louie McCarthy-Scarsbrook were two of multiple big departures at the end of that season, as Wellens looked to forge his own squad and carry on the legacy that Kristian Woolf had left him.

In 2024, the Saints finished sixth, and fell in the play-offs at the first stage. A one-point defeat to Warrington sent them crashing out of the Grand Final title race, and in the cup things weren’t much better either. A quarter final loss, again to Warrington see them exit at the quarter finals, meaning that, in both league and cup, Wellens’ men were defeated one stage prior than they did the previous year.

This season was always going to be make or break for Wellens. Two seasons without a final, let alone a trophy was bad enough, to go home empty-handed three years in a row would be almost unheard of at the club, due to their plethora of success in the Super League era. The club brought in Tristan Sailor, who was set to replace the outgoing Lewis Dodd in the halves, but that move has given more questions than answers, with Saints going the full year without knowing how to use both him and Jack Welsby in the same team. A cup defeat to Warrington for the third year in a row ended their first trophy hopes of the season, and after scraping into the semi-finals by the skin of their teeth a fortnight ago, as Shane Wright’s last minute try gave Wellens a lifeline. However, that hope turn to disappointment, as they lost out to Hull KR last week, in what was the final nail in the coffin for Wellens’ time as head coach.

Here is what we believe are the three biggest factors that eventually led to St Helens deciding to part ways with one of their best ever players.

Inability to defeat the big teams

The key to having sustained success is being able to beat those teams around you on a consistent basis. Being able to scrape and earn wins from those closest in the league ladder is what sets apart the top teams from the rest. Wellens’ record against those types of teams has been awful, and is a key reason why Saints have never made a final under his tenure.

Since he joined, he has coached against Warrington 11 times, winning four of those – the last coming in 2023. Against Wigan, he has won twice in seven attempts, and against Hull KR and Leigh, he has played each team eight times and won just once against the Robins and twice against the Leopards. In total, from those 34 matches, it equates to just nine wins.

Form like that against the league’s best has been a huge problem for the former full-back, and is one of the first things whoever comes in to replace him will need to sort out.

Spine issues in 2025

When Dodd left Saints in 2024, not only did they lose a controlling half-back, but someone with a brilliant kicking game that allowed Saints to dominate territory and make teams start their sets from close to their own line. Since his exit, the full-back and two halves positions have been a complete mess, and it has resulted in another poor season for the Red Vee.

As mentioned, Sailor was supposed to be the creative six with Jonny Lomax moving to half-back. However, neither of them two managed to perform well in those positions, Sailor especially, and it ended up costing Saints some valuable wins and momentum in the early stages of the season.

Welsby’s injury part-way through the year was somewhat of a blessing for Wellens. Obviously he would have preferred to have his star man out there, but his absence allowed Sailor to move to full-back, a position he excelled in. Saints managed to find some form and won eight out of nine games with him at the back, which pushed them back into top four contention.

However, England international Welsby’s return poised the same headache to the boss, with him now having two players who are brilliant at full-back, but neither of them work well in the halves. This clash in squad dynamics lasted until the very end, as positions switched all the way up to the end of the regular season. As a result, a lack of cohesion where it was needed most resulted in poor attacking output, and Hull KR were too strong for Wellens’ side, dumping them out of the playoffs earlier than they’d have wanted for a third season in a row.

Wretched recruitment

The poor recruitment is perhaps one of the main things that can’t be fully blamed on Wellens. For the past three seasons, the Red Vee have made some questionable recruitment choices, and it is part of the reason they have become so stagnant. The Sailor signing highlights that, with the former Brisbane Broncos man being brought in to play in the halves, when his ability showed he wasn’t good in that position. Waqa Blake is another that didn’t work out, and whilst he may have scored a fair few tries, Kyle Feldt has not had a great first season in red and white either.

Contracts are another issue at the club. The decision to extend Konrad Hurrell’s deal at the end of last year, when they could have brought in a new centre hasn’t paid off. The club are yet to announce a decision on Agnatius Paasi too, despite the prop averaging less than 60 metres per game this campaign. Obviously, hindsight is a wonderful thing and the Saints boss can’t see into the future, but it does feel like Wellens has been set up to fail with countless recruitment moves that have not panned out.

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