Heading into the final six rounds of the Super League season, the maths just doesn’t work as seven teams are battling it out for six places, whilst the League Leaders Shield is still in the balance.
Two of those seven teams have seven games to go, whilst the remaining five play six fixtures and we’ve ranked the difficulty of each team’s final few games to work out who is in the driving seat for the League Leaders Shield, an all-important top two finish, and who might miss out entirely.
The formula used to work that out is a simple one. Each team’s fixtures are broken down and scored on a rating of 1 to 14, based on where their opponents sit in the table. For example, leaders Leeds Rhinos represent a score of one on account of their league position, whereas Huddersfield score 14
When averaged out, a high score points to a team who play teams lower in the table but the lower the score is, the tougher the fixtures are. All those scores are based on the current Super League table after the end of Round 21.
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Every Super League play-off contenders’ run-in ranked
The difficulty of a fixture run-in is ranked from easiest to toughest based on the aforementioned system.
7th: Warrington Wolves – Bradford (a), York (H), Hull KR (a), Huddersfield (H), Hull FC (a), Wakefield (a), Toulouse (H) – Average position faced = 9.28
The team with by far the easiest run-in among contenders is Warrington Wolves with Sam Burgess’ side facing all of the bottom three in their final seven games, as well as tenth and ninth.
They have just two games against fellow top six sides, those being away trips to Hull KR and Wakefield with that game against the Robins a rescheduled mid-week match from round two.
One thing that makes this run slightly tougher than the ranking would suggest is that four of their seven games are on the road, including those top six clashes, but they’re already four points inside the six so the play-offs seem a lock.
6th: Hull KR – Castleford (a), Catalans (H), Warrington (H), Toulouse (H), Wigan (a), Huddersfield (H), St Helens (a) – Average position faced = 8
Hull KR also have a favourable run in and unlike Warrington, the majority of their games are at home. They face just two top six sides but they also travel to St Helens on the final day of the season, though that came could be a damp squib if the Red Vee are already out of the play-off picture by then.
There is a world where that game could well decide who makes the six in a straight shoot-out but Willie Peters’ side will have hoped to capitalise on home games against Catalans, Toulouse, and Huddersfield, as well as that re-arranged game with Wire, to ensure that they’re already in the six.
5th: Leigh Leopards – York (H), Leeds (a), Bradford (H), Huddersfield (a), St Helens (H), Wakefield (H) – Average position faced = 7.66
Despite only being two points safe inside the six, Leigh will fancy themselves to make the play-offs once again thanks in large part to games against lowly Bradford and Huddersfield. They do face two top six sides in Leeds and Wakefield, but more crucial is the fact that they play St Helens at home in a true four-pointer.
It could be as simple as winning that and making the six should they take care of business in the games that they’ll be heavy favourites for (York, Bradford and Huddersfield). With four of their six games at home, they also have a big advantage.
4th: Leeds Rhinos – Wakefield (a), Leigh (H), York (a), St Helens (a), Wigan (H), Hull FC (H) – Average position faced = 6.83
Leeds perhaps have a far tougher run than the average rank would suggest as Hull FC’s lowly position of 13th drops that ranking down a chunk. The Rhinos actually play three play-off sides plus St Helens, whilst an away trip to York isn’t all that easy.
One positive for Brad Arthur’s side is that two of their three top six clashes come at Headingley with this Friday’s game away at Wakefield the exception to that. A win on Friday and Leeds look a lock for top two and perhaps even the League Leaders Shield, but a loss there will make for a very exciting final five games.
3rd: St Helens – Hull FC (H), Wakefield (a), Castleford (H), Leeds (H), Leigh (a), Hull KR (H) – Average position faced = 6.33
Already on the outside looking in, this fixture run will have alarm bells ringing for St Helens who are still incredibly short on bodies.
Home games against the lowly-ranked Hull FC and Castleford obscure how tough this run-in is with Saints playing four of the top six, including Wakefield and Leeds. Home advantage in four of their six games is perhaps the only positive they can seek out but sitting back on 24 points, you’d imagine Saints need to win at least five of these to make the play-offs given how poor their points difference is.
2nd: Wigan – Toulouse (H), Bradford (a), Wakefield (H), Hull KR (H), Leeds (a), Catalans (H) – Average position faced = 6.16
The next two games will be crucial for Wigan as they may need to improve their points difference on the off-chance that either the League Leaders Shield or top two placings come down to that metric.
Matt Peet’s side then have the tough run of Wakefield, Hull KR and Leeds, with that round 26 clash at Headingley perhaps a League Leaders Shield decider.
Facing both Wakefield and Leeds is a blessing and a curse in that they’re immensely tough fixtures but they also put Wigan’s fate in their own hands, and the Warriors certainly won’t back against themselves.
1st: Wakefield – Leeds (H), St Helens (H), Wigan (a), York (H), Warrington (H), Leigh (a) – Average position faced = 5.16
Without doubt, the toughest run-in of any side, not just among the contenders but of any team in Super League, is Wakefield. Daryl Powell’s side play four of the top six teams, as well as St Helens who sit seventh.
York at home is their only game against a team not competing for the play-offs with that game placed nicely in the middle of this tough run. Trinity will find out plenty on Friday night when they face the Rhinos, where a win would give them a massive shot at finishing in the top two, though they’re almost certain to beat their previous best-ever Super League finish of fifth (2009, 2017 and 2018).
Only six rounds remain 👀#SuperLeague pic.twitter.com/F6YGRYTaoM
— Betfred Super League (@SuperLeague) August 3, 2026
