Leeds Rhinos take on St Helens tonight in the second Super League eliminator playoff, with the winner advancing to the semi-finals to face Hull KR next Saturday evening.
Leigh Leopards put on a brilliant showing last night to book their place in the final four, as they t0re apart Wakefield Trinity to set up a meeting with local rivals Wigan Warriors.
Now, it’s the turn of two of the competition’s heavyweights, with Leeds and Saints always earmarked on the calendar due to it’s rich history.
Following the Leopards’ win last night, Sky Sports pundits Jon Wilkin and Sam Tomkins analysed the two sides that will do battle at AMT Headingley tonight, as they tried to predict what the outcome would be at the final whistle.
Wilkin, who played over 420 matches for Saints across 16 seasons, backed his former side to get the win over the West Yorkshire outfit, having already done so on three out of four meetings this year.
He believes that the Saints forward pack, particularly loose forward Morgan Knowles, will be key to a Red Vee victory. Knowles’ standout season earned him a place in the 2025 Super League Dream Team, and is a shoe-in for a starting England jersey following Victor Radley’s withdrawal from the squad.
“I fancy them.” Wilkin said. “The fans are a bit dismayed about the performance against Castleford. It almost had a pre-season warmup game feel, so that’s not ideal going into this and St Helens don’t carry the best of form into a game against Leeds, but then you look at the team sheet and the pedigree of people they’ve got in the team. Morgan Knowles is probably one of the best players in our comp, going to the NRL next year, this is a game he will relish.
“As tonight showed, there’s some fundamental things that if you do well in a big game, you’ve a chance. They are the things that St Helens do well, so they’ve a chance.”
As mentioned Saints have beaten Leeds three times this year, twice at home and once away, with Leeds’ sole victory coming at Magic Weekend in May. The Saints carry a rich vein of form coming into the clash at AMT Headingley, having not lost there, against the Rhinos at least, since 2017. Paul Wellens’ men know how to get the edge on the Rhinos, and there may not be a more important game to do so than tonight.
Adding to that, Tomkins, who decided last month to retire from the sport to focus on a role in the media, described Saints as a “gritty” team that know how to win these types of matches having done it so many times before.
The former Wigan and Catalans man said: “I’d describe them as a gritty team. They’ve got a real intent in the way they defend, which is epitomised with Morgan Knowles. They want to grind a team out. That’s the sort of rugby that gets you results this time of year. Probably a little bit of frustration from the fans is that you look at the squad, they’ve got an amazing squad. There’s been [talk around] who plays where? Who’s the best full-back? Who’s the best half-back? There’s been a lot of questions around this Saints side. But, they’re right where they need to be. They’re going into a quarter-final.”
Sky Sports pundits analyse Leeds Rhinos duo ahead of playoff clash
The duo both agreed, however, that if Leeds are to take the win tonight, it would revolve around two of their stars – Lachie Miller and Jake Connor – who both are set to return tonight after missing last week through injury. Like so many times this year, the pair will have to take control of the game and lead their team around. However, that can also come with it’s flaws. The Rhinos have been known to ‘overplay’ at times which often leads them to conceding points or giving away silly errors in good field position.
Wilkin commented on how those mistakes can’t happen tonight. He said: “The crucial thing for Leeds, and for Jake Connor, and for Lachie Miller is ball control. Jake Connor has every single trick in the book. He can play any pass, any kick and promote the ball, but their shape is so important. If I’ve got one criticism about Leeds Rhinos it’s they can run hot, they get loose with the ball. When I’ve seen them been bad this year it’s when they’ve just got carried away with how they’re going to play. I think Brad Arthur will be just urging Connor and Lachie Miller to have an incredibly disciplined first 40 minutes. Nothing flamboyant. Run the ball, get tackled, finish in corners.”
While Saints have been brilliant in defence all year, it’s been their attack that has let them down at times. The most points they’ve scored against a top four side this season, in the league, is 18, which ironically did come against the Rhinos. Tomkins admitted that whilst Saints have all these stars in their side, there has been no gamebreakers for them this year that have won a game for them like Connor and Miller have been able to do. If they are to progress to the final four, it will have to be through defence.
He said: “It’s been clear all year, they’ve not had that killer punch, have they? Jake Connor, we’ve seen some amazing skill from him this year. I believe he will be under more pressure tomorrow with Matty Lees and Morgan Knowles than he has been all year. The pressure on Leeds is to still perform. For Saints, they know they’re going to pressure them. They know they’re going to be defensive, but it’s where do the points come from? That is going to be the question. We’ve spoke about this for the majority of the season, and if it does come tomorrow they’re going to be a very tough team to beat.”
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