Challenge Cup semi-final predictions as Wigan Warriors v St Helens verdict split and upset tipped

It’s Challenge Cup semi-final weekend and that means prediction time for both the men’s and women’s competitions, with Wigan Warriors and St Helens in action in both.

Wigan Warriors and St Helens face off in the men’s competition but they’re on opposing sides of the draw in the women’s comp, meaning they could meet at Wembley for a rematch of last year’s final that Wigan won.

Saturday sees Matt Peet’s and Paul Rowley’s side face off at the Halliwell Jones Stadium with Denis Betts’ Wigan side taking on York Valkyrie that day.

Sunday then sees St Helens take on Leeds Rhinos in the women’s competition before a repeat of last year’s men’s final as Hull KR face Warrington Wolves. Those two games will be played at Doncaster’s Eco-Power Stadium.

Here is what we think will unfold over the weekend, as well as an updated leaderboard following last week’s results.

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Challenge Cup semi-final predictions

Wigan Warriors v York Valkyrie (W) – Saturday, 9th May – 11:30 am

Peter Smith: Wigan 40-10 York

It’s hard to predict how the women’s games will go as they are at the start of their season and none of the semi-finalists has been tested yet. Wigan, however, won everything last year and still look very strong. They should be too good for a York side who have a new coach in Leon Pryce.

Sam Cook: Wigan 42-10 York

Wigan are the dominant force in the women’s game at the moment and I think it would be a huge result if York can overcome them. They’ve certainly got the talent but they’d likely need to meet Wigan on an off day, and given the Warriors recently scored 112 in one game I don’t see an off day coming.

Sam Brocksom: Wigan 30-16 York

Denis Betts’ side only lost once last season, but that came against York – something the Valkyrie will be hoping to repeat. However, I think Wigan will be too strong in their quest to go back-to-back.

St Helens v Wigan Warriors (M) – Saturday, 9th May – 2.30 pm

PS: St Helens 24-20 Wigan

It’s unwise to write off Wigan in any Challenge Cup tie, as they proved when they won at Wakefield Trinity in the previous round. The return of Harry Smith and Sam Walters from suspension will give them a boost, but they’ve lost Ethan Havard to a ban and recent form has been poor. Saints have started to get players back and are playing better so may just edge it.

SC: St Helens 16-22 Wigan

Wigan, whilst far from perfect, were on their way to a comfortable win in the Good Friday derby before a late collapse and I think they’ll avenge that here. Harry Smith’s return can’t be understated and the return of Liam Farrell to the centres has proven fruitful already.

SB: St Helens 16-20 Wigan

I said it on this week’s Serious About Rugby League show, and I’ll reiterate, I think Harry Smith’s return, and his influence on the team, will give Wigan the edge in this game. Saints go into the semi as huge favourites, and rightly so, but Wigan have missed Smith’s composure and leadership in the past three games. If he is on top form, I think the Warriors have enough to reach Wembley.

St Helens v Leeds Rhinos (W) – Sunday, 10th May – 1:00 pm

PS: St Helens 20-28 Leeds

Rhinos have yet to concede a point in  their three games this season, but Saints are a much sterner test. While Saints have the edge in experience and an outstanding Challenge Cup record against Leeds, Rhinos may spring a surprise.

SC: St Helens 24-18 Leeds

Saints have made it to the last five Challenge Cup finals, winning all bar the last, and they’ll want to return and put last year’s loss right. They’ve also been more tested so far as they had the rising Huddersfield in their group, whereas Leeds are yet to face any adversity.

SB: St Helens 14-20 Leeds

Leeds haven’t conceded a point in their first three games of 2026, and whilst I expect that run to end this week, I think they have significantly improved this pre-season and will be on the hunt to return to the national stadium. Rhinos get the win here, and if they do expect big performances from the likes of Lucy Murray, Ebony Stead and Mel Howard.

Hull KR v Warrington Wolves (M) – Sunday, 10th May – 4:00 pm

PS: Hull KR 18-26 Warrington

Going for a shock here. Hull KR have hit form and been scoring points for fun, but that’s against sides in the bottom half of the Super League table. Warrington are more battle hardened and that could swing a close encounter in their favour.

SC: Hull KR 20-16 Warrington

Warrington have beaten Wigan and Saints but the semi-final status of this game makes it feel like their first major test and I just think they’ll come up shy. Hull KR are really starting to hit their stride and I think they’ll return to Wembley to defend their crown.

SB: Hull KR 22-12 Warrington

Dean Hadley is in doubt at this stage, having not returned in the second half against Castleford last week. As much as I want Sam Burgess to finally win a Challenge Cup after being twice a runner up, I think KR will be too strong with Tyrone May and the rest of the spine proving too elusive.

Predictions Leaderboard

1st: Peter Smith– 60

2nd: Sam Cook – 55

3rd: Sam Brocksom – 50