2 games early Saturday morning for us to look at, 1st up sees Tonga take on Lebanon.
England will play the winners of this in the semi final if they can get past Papua New Guinea on Sunday and the bookies seem sure it’ll be Tonga.
You can get double figure odds for Lebanon to beat a Tongan side that really set the tournament alight with a win over New Zealand last week.
That win saw them top Group B and they should be far too strong for a limited Lebanese side.
The handicap line is around 30 and I do think Tonga can win this by more than that, they put 50 points on Scotland in week one and could go over 40 points again against Lebanon, who qualified for the quarter finals with a win over France in week one.
Lebanon only lost by 19 points against England in the group stage but Wayne Bennett’s side were out of sorts that day and Tonga should be riding the crest of a wave after the famous win over the Kiwis last week.
A 36-40 points Tonga win is about where I see this ending up.
2nd game sees New Zealand and Fiji battle for the right to play Australia in the semi final next week.
Fiji are unbeaten so far but this is a massive step up from the group stage where they beat Italy, Wales and
Fiji haven’t been tested yet but the same can’t be said of New Zealand who will be smarting from last week’s loss against Tonga.
The Kiwis though comfortably beat Scotland and Samoa and I think they’ll comfortably win this one too.
The 2008 winners are 1/6 to win the game and concede a 16 point start on the handicap. They should be able to win this by around 21-25 points to just cover the cap, Fiji are around 5/1 to pull off a shock but it’s New Zealand who will take on Australia next week for me.
We’ll have a look at England v PNG tomorrow as always please gamble responsibly.